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Commerzbank has raised its USD/TRY forecast to 42 by the end of 2025 and 46 by 2026, citing escalating political tensions in Türkiye, particularly a corruption probe involving Istanbul's mayor. The Turkish lira recently fell over 12% amid market instability, prompting central bank interventions. Analyst Tatha Ghose warned that ongoing political strife could lead to further depreciation of the lira, exacerbating inflation and straining international relations.
Bank of America has revised Türkiye's inflation forecast upward to 28.1%, citing political turmoil, and raised its year-end policy interest rate projection to 32.5%. The bank also shifted its outlook for the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, now expecting rates to remain steady instead of a cut. Despite recent challenges, analysts believe political uncertainty may ease, with a commitment to restoring stability and reducing inflation.
JPMorgan has raised Türkiye's year-end inflation forecast from 27.2% to 29.5% due to a slower disinflation process and recent currency volatility following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. The bank anticipates a 150 basis-point interest rate cut starting in April, adjusting the year-end rate expectation to 35%. Concerns over persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks are influencing Türkiye's economic outlook and foreign investment dynamics.
The Turkish lira plunged to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar and euro, depreciating by about 10% following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a key political rival of President Erdoğan. This event has heightened investor concerns over Turkey's political stability and economic policies, leading to a nearly 9% drop in the BIST 100 index. In response, the central bank intervened by selling a record amount of foreign currency to stabilize the lira.
Istanbul is set to offer free public transport to unemployed residents to facilitate job searches, a policy announced by Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. This initiative, which will provide 96 free rides over three months to registered job seekers, comes amid rising transit costs and a significant unemployment rate. Similar programs have been implemented in various cities worldwide.
Ekrem İmamoğlu
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
Commerzbank raises USD to TRY forecast amid political tensions in Türkiye
14:16 31.03.2025
Bank of America raises Türkiye inflation forecast amid political turmoil
11:36 25.03.2025
JPMorgan raises inflation and interest rate forecasts for Turkey amid volatility
09:05 20.03.2025
turkish lira hits record low amid political turmoil and investor concerns
16:39 19.03.2025
Istanbul offers free public transport to support unemployed job seekers
05:58 01.11.2024
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